Production, Utilization and Demand
Merritt Taylor, Charles Hall and Gustavo Molina*

The Texas citrus industry was devastated by the December 1983 freeze, which destroyed more than 47,000 of the Rio Grande Valley's 69,000 acres of citrus, and subsequently by the December 1989 freeze which destroyed about 24,000 of the existing 35,700 acres of citrus. Because of these freezes, changes have occurred in the Texas citrus industry, and full recovery to 1983 pre-freeze production levels is still years away. However, it is projected that citrus acreage will return to only about 60 percent of pre-freeze levels. As growers continue to plant orchards, all sectors of the industry are planning and implementing efforts to improve the overall position of Texas citrus in the marketplace.

Data on production and utilization of Texas citrus during the post-1989 freeze recovery period indicate that the industry has not returned to pre-freeze levels. A base set of data comprised of an average of the 5 years immediately preceding the 1983 freeze is used for comparison purposes. Grapefruit and orange production levels between the 1983 and 1989 freezes did not equal the pre1983 freeze production levels before the next freeze hit in 1989. The average production levels during 1983-1989 were 67 percent of the 5-year period preceding the 1983 freeze for grapefruit and 35 percent for oranges. These production levels fell to zero after the 1989 freeze for the 199091 season. The Texas citrus industry began a slow recovery that continued through the 1993-94 production year.

Tonnage sold was almost 0.7 percent for grapefruit and 1.3 percent for oranges of the pre-1983 freeze average in the 1991-92 season. These values continued to increase each of the subsequent years with production from pruned trees that survived the freeze and as newly planted trees began producing,

Production utilized for the 1992-93 season was 75,000 tons or 19.2 percent of the 1983 pre-freeze average for grapefruit and 20,570 tons or 9.2 percent for oranges. The most recent season completed (1993-94) yielded 118,440 tons or 30.3 percent of 1983 pre-freeze levels for grapefruit and 23,078 tons, which was 10.3 percent for oranges.

Although 90 countries worldwide produce oranges, seven countries accounted for 85 percent of world production in the 1991-92 season. In the same season, another seven countries produced 95 percent of the world grapefruit supplies. During the 1991-92 season, the U.S. produced about 23 percent of the world's fresh oranges and 60 percent of its fresh grapefruit.

In 1990, the U.S. exported 16 percent of its fresh grapefruit and 8 percent of its fresh orange production. Texas did not contribute to the U.S. citrus exports in 1990 because the severe freeze experienced in 1989 eliminated its citrus production. Not until recently has Texas resumed the exporting of citrus products. In the 1992-93 season, Texas exported 116 tons of fresh citrus and in the 1993-94 season, it exported 2,069 tons, an increase of almost 1,700 percent. Even though the U.S. is an exporter of citrus products, it continues to import part of its domestic citrus consumption to maintain a year-round supply. Most U.S. imports are from Mexico, particularly during September and October, before domestic harvest begins.

Citrus acreage data and trends indicate the extent of change occurring within the citrus industry and provide a base to project future citrus production supplies. In general, all three of the major U.S. production areas (California/ Arizona, Florida and Texas) have experienced significant acreage reductions. Urban expansion and general economic conditions have been partly responsible, but a series of freezes caused severe acreage losses in Florida and Texas.

Nonetheless, orchard age, density, rootstocks, variety, management, climate and other factors determine orchard productivity. Consequently, actual production and utilization data are better indicators of supply and market share than are acreage data.

Grapefruit
Production, utilization and value of all grapefruit production in the U.S. are presented in Table 1 by production area for the 1978-79 season through the 1993-94 season. Texas ranks third in terms of production and in market utilization (both fresh and processed), representing a little over 7 percent of total U.S. grapefruit production. While Florida supplied 71 percent of U.S. fresh grapefruit, it processed almost 1.5 times more than it shipped fresh.

Table 1. Annual production, utilization and value of U.S grapefruit by area for 1978-1994.

Season	Production (tons)	Fresh Utilization (tons)	Processed Utilization(tons)	Percent fresh	Value ($1,000)
California/Arizona
1978-79	272,465	154,350	118,115	56.65	36,967
1979-80	340,950	155,540	185,410	45.62	29,997
1980-81	353,220	198,150	155,070	56.10	48,338
1981-82	279,135	157,415	121,721	56.39	25,325
1982-83	345,770	208,778	136,992	60.38	32,822
1983-84	318,916	206,398	111,798	64.87	40,414
1984-85	396,720	273,740	122,980	69.00	81,869
1985-86	356,090	245,130	110,960	68.84	72,822
1986-87	393,970	248,145	145,825	62.99	70,175
1987-88	361,790	239,000	122,790	66.06	65,388
1988-89	325,600	223,670	101,930	68.69	58,085
1989-90	379,660	250,680	128,980	66.03	97,460
1990-91	340,000	225,224	114,776	66.24	64,370
1991-92	424,600	279,680	144,920	65.87	80,706
1992-93	387,050	2342,898	144,152	62.76	49,095
1993-94*	356,000	NA	NA	NA	NA
Average	351,951	220,587	131,095	62.43	56,922
Percent of U.S. total	13.80	18.93	9.54		17.26
Florida
1978-79	2,125,000	841,075	1,283,925	39.58	177,009
1979-80	2,329,000	828,793	1,500,207	35.59	246,458
1980-81	2,137,750	729,598	1,408,152	34.13	248,294
1981-82	2,044,250	710,558	1,333,693	34.76	165,540
1982-83	1,674,500	778,303	896,198	46.48	129,851
1983-84	1,738,460	708,303	1,030,158	40.74	170,511
1984-85	1,870,000	636,990	1,233,010	34.06	228,661
1985-86	1,986,875	833,850	1,153,025	41.97	267,067
1986-87	2,116,500	889,865	1,226,635	42.04	329,098
1987-88	2,288,625	982,175	1,306,450	42.92	387,446
1988-89	2,326,875	1,015,835	1,311,040	43.66	332,849
1989-90	1,517,250	567,120	950,130	37.38	260,275
1990-91	1,916,750	1,016,728	900,023	53.04	328,770
1991-92	1,802,000	970,743	831,258	53.87	349,688
1992-93	2,343,875	984,130	1,359,745	41.99	232,207
1993-94*	2,171,000	NA	NA	NA	NA
Average	2,024,294	832,938	1,181,576	41.48	256,915
Percent of U.S. total	79.38	71.48	85.95		77.90
Texas
1978-79	360,000	160,000	200,000	44.44	17,680
1979-80	316,000	168,000	148,000	53.16	26,237
1980-81	268,000	186,000	82,000	69.40	27,260
1981-82	556,000	289,200	266,800	52.01	38,173
1982-83	448,000	312,000	136,000	69.64	24,148
1983-84	128,000	114,400	13,600	89.38	9,385
1984-85	0	0	0	0.00	0
1985-86	9,040	8,240	800	91.15	2,076
1986-87	77,000	62,200	14,800	80.78	15,759
1987-88	152,000	111,400	40,600	73.29	25,754
1988-89	192,000	155,600	36,400	81.04	25,107
1989-90	80,000	64,200	15,800	80.25	14,162
1990-91	0	0	0	0.00	0
1991-92	2,600	2,600	0	100.00	983
1992-93	75,000	55,800	19,120	74.51	12,856
1993-94*	118,440	99,320	19,120	83.86	NA
Average	173,880	111,815	62,065	65.18	15,972
Percent of U.S. total	6.82	9.60	4.51		4.84

*Estimate for the 1993-94 season.
SOURCES: 1993 Texas Citrus Tree Inventory Survey, Texas Department of Agriculture, USDA
1989 Texas Citrus Tree Inventory Survey, Texas Department of Agriculture, USDA
Citrus Estimates, Final Estimates for 1981-82 Crop through 1986-87 Crop, NASS, USDA.
Texas Citrus Handbook, Texas Cooperative Extension, The Texas A&M University System.
Texas Citrus, June1, 1994, TASS, USDA.

Since 1978, on the average, Texas has shipped almost 65 percent of its total grapefruit production as fresh fruit. However, Texas grapefruit value was a distant third, as its almost 7 percent share of U.S. production only generated close to 5 percent of the total U.S. value. The California/ Arizona grapefruit crop averaged $161-73 per ton, while Florida's averaged $126.92 per ton, and Texas grapefruit averaged $90.82 per ton (calculated by dividing average value by average production for the 15-year period).

Oranges
Production, utilization and value of all orange production in the U.S. are presented in Table 2 by production area, for the seasons 1978-79 through 1993-94. Again Texas ranked a distant third in all categories, supplying a little over 1 percent of U.S. orange production. The California/Arizona region was the leading supplier of fresh oranges, with 76 percent of the total. Florida was the leading processing state, with just over 89 percent of all U.S. processed orange production.

Table 2. Annual production, utilization and value of U.S. oranges by area for 1978-1994.

Season	Production (tons)	Fresh Utilization (tons)	Processed Utilization(tons)	Percent fresh	Value ($1,000)
California/Arizona
1978-79	1,507,500	991,500	516,000	65.77	994,990
1979-80	2,358,750	1,563,000	795,750	66.26	1,068,408
1980-81	2,581,875	1,513,500	1,068,375	58.62	1,045,600
1981-82	1,685,625	1,332,000	353,625	79.02	387,020
1982-83	2,996,250	1,717,313	1,278,938	57.32	335,257
1983-84	1,883,625	1,562,500	421,125	77.64	411,869
1984-85	2,041,875	1,575,188	466,688	77.14	525,271
1985-86	2,097,375	1,696,687	400,688	80.90	378,920
1986-87	2,272,500	1,637,250	635,250	72.05	450,859
1987-88	2,280,750	1,602,188	678,563	70.25	473,109
1988-89	2,272,500	1,568,063	704,438	69.00	477,006
1989-90	2,737,875	1,809,713	928,163	66.10	568,719
1990-91	1,025,625	660,675	364,950	64.42	401,706
1991-92	2,616,750	1,618,350	998,400	61.85	448,996
1992-93	2,649,375	1,938,600	710,775	73.17	458,677
1993-94*	2,467,000	NA	NA	NA	NA
Average	2,217,203	1,512,435	688,115	69.30	561,760
Percent of U.S. total	25.13	76.15	10.22		35.90
Florida
1978-79	7,380,000	526,545	6,835,455	7.13	994,990
1979-80	9,301,500	494,550	8,806,950	5.32	1,068,408
1980-81	7,758,000	372,420	7,385,580	4.80	1,045,600
1981-82	5,661,000	342,900	5,318,100	6.06	752,547
1982-83	6,282,000	464,400	5,817,600	7.39	955,741
1983-84	5,251,500	343,800	4,907,700	6.55	880,377
1984-85	4,675,500	299,340	4,376,160	6.40	930,139
1985-86	5,364,000	403,200	4,960,800	7.52	708,356
1986-87	5,386,500	399,150	4,987,350	7.41	864,171
1987-88	6,210,000	428,400	5,781,600	6.90	1,288,199
1988-89	6,597,000	381,960	6,215,040	5.79	1,357,529
1989-90	4,959,000	266,490	4,692,510	5.37	888,097
1990-91	6,822,000	560,295	6,261,705	8.21	1,180,715
1991-92	6,291,450	520,290	5,771,160	8.27	1,094,369
1992-93	8,392,500	481,185	7,911,315	5.73	851,718
1993-94*	7,844,000	NA	NA	NA	NA
Average	6,510,997	418,995	6,001,935	6.59	990,731
Percent of U.S. total	73.80	21.10	89.18		63.32
Texas
1978-79	272,000	89,250	182,750	32.81	26,970
1979-80	171,275	88,400	82,875	51.61	19,791
1980-81	184,025	121,125	62,900	65.82	20,363
1981-82	252,450	141,100	111,350	55.89	28,228
1982-83	241,400	141,950	99,450	58.80	26,402
1983-84	106,675	59,075	47,600	55.38	11,492
1984-85	0	0	0	0.00	0
1985-86	13,175	12,325	850	93.55	3,168
1986-87	37,188	33,363	3,825	89.71	7,593
1987-88	60,775	54,230	6,545	89.23	12,373
1988-89	78,625	66,130	12,495	84.11	13,932
1989-90	51,213	28,178	23,035	55.02	8,256
1990-91	0	0	0	0.00	0
1991-92	1,275	1,275	0	100.00	431
1992-93	21,675	19,040	2,635	87.84	4,274
1993-94*	23,078	21,187	1,891	91.81	NA
Average	94,677	54,789	39,888	63.22	12,218
Percent of U.S. total	1.07	2.76	0.59		0.78

*Estimate for the 1993-94 season.
SOURCES: 1993 Texas Citrus Tree Inventory Survey, Texas Department of Agriculture, USDA
1989 Texas Citrus Tree Inventory Survey, Texas Department of Agriculture, USDA
Citrus Estimates, Final Estimates for 1981-82 Crop through 1986-87 Crop, NASS, USDA.
Texas Citrus Handbook, Texas Cooperative Extension, The Texas A&M University System.
Texas Citrus, June1, 1994, TASS, USDA.

California/Arizona navel oranges are noted for their unblemished appearance which contributes to the relatively high percentage (69-30 percent) entering the fresh market. Over 63 percent of Texas production was used in the fresh market. Texas orange value was somewhat higher than that of grapefruit, yet its I percent share of production represented less than 1 percent of the total U.S. value. California/Arizona oranges averaged $253-36 per ton, while Florida's averaged $152.16 per ton, and Texas oranges averaged $129.05 per ton (calculated by dividing average value by average production for the 15-year period).

Texas grapefruit acreage over the 1987-88 through 1992-93 period was 1.6 times greater than its orange acreage. While grapefruit production per acre is typically higher than orange yields, the average value of Texas grapefruit production was only 1.3 times higher than that of oranges-$15,972 million and $12,218 million, respectively. A major factor in the difference in total crop value is the processing value of the two fruits. That is, prices for processed oranges were generally higher than those for processed grapefruit.

Demand
A shift has occurred in the utilization of citrus in the U.S. The "market basket" has been changing with increased demand for convenience foods. Processed markets have become a larger outlet for fruit producers because of increased consumer demand for processed products. At the same time, the fresh market has been declining slightly in importance.

Past utilization trends provide the basis for examining changes in consumption patterns, which reflect the interaction of factors such as production, price, income, population, demand, consumer preference and taste. Table 3 summarizes the trends in per capita consumption by product form. The consumption of fresh citrus declined steadily from 1950 to 1960, remained fairly consistent to 1976, and then continued to decline through 1990. This decline has been offset by a steady increase in per capita consumption of frozen concentrated orange juice, which increased from 21.9 pounds in 1970 to 29.2 pounds by 1990. Chilled juice consumption increased from 4.6 pounds per capita in 1970 to 6.3 pounds in 1990.

Table 3. U.S. per capita citrus consumption by product form, 1970-1990.

Year	Fresh (lbs.)	Canned juice (lbs.)	Frozen juice (lbs.)	Chilled juice (lbs.)	Total citrus (lbs.)
1970	28.9	5.2	21.9	4.6	60.6
1971	29.0	5.3	25.6	4.7	64.6
1972	27.3	5.1	29.4	5.1	66.9
1973	27.2	5.5	28.5	5.2	66.4
1974	27.0	5.3	31.1	5.1	68.5
1975	29.1	5.2	35.0	5.6	74.8
1976	28.5	5.1	35.1	6.0	74.8
1977	26.0	4.9	36.6	5.6	73.1
1978	26.1	5.5	30.3	6.0	67.9
1979	23.0	5.5	32.9	5.4	66.8
1980	26.1	5.1	33.8	5.8	70.7
1981	23.5	4.8	33.2	4.1	65.7
1982	23.5	3.9	36.9	3.5	67.8
1983	27.9	2.9	41.7	4.1	76.6
1984	22.7	2.8	35.6	3.7	64.8
1985	21.5	2.3	40.5	3.2	67.4
1986	24.2	2.0	43.3	3.8	73.3
1987	23.9	2.0	40.2	4.5	70.6
1988	25.5	1.7	40.1	5.1	72.4
1989	23.6	1.6	34.3	6.5	66.0
1990	21.4	1.8	27.2	6.3	56.7

SOURCES: 1993 Fruit and Tree Nuts Situation and Outlook Yearbook, ERS, USDA.
1991 Fruit and Tree Nuts Situation and Outlook Yearbook, ERS, USDA.

Changes in the composition of per capita citrus consumption can be traced to several factors. The substitution of processed fruit for fresh fruit is closely associated with changes in consumer tastes and lifestyles, convenience in shopping, changes in kitchen appliances, and urban population growth. Processed citrus is convenient and time-saving. As family income rises, consumers will tend to pay higher prices for these value-added products.

Changes in the types of fresh citrus consumed were not uniform between 1970 and 1992. The data in Table 4 indicates that consumption of fresh lemons and limes increased but the consumption of all other fresh citrus declined. Fresh orange consumption declined by 20 percent from 16.2 pounds per capita in 1970 to 12.9 pounds in 1992. Grapefruit consumption also went down by 28 percent from 8.2 pounds in 1970 to 5.9 pounds in 1992. The per capita consumption of all fresh citrus has declined by 16 percent, from 28.9 pounds in 1970 to 24.2 pounds in 1992.

Table 4. U.S. per capita fresh citrus consumption, 1970-1992.

Year	Oranges and Temples (lbs.)	Tangerines and Tangelos (lbs.)	Lemons (lbs.)	Limes(lbs.)	Grapefruit(lbs.)	Total(lbs.)
1970	16.2	2.2	2.1	0.2	8.2	28.9
1971	15.7	2.3	2.3	0.2	8.5	29.0
1972	14.5	2.1	1.9	0.2	8.6	27.3
1973	14.4	2.1	1.9	0.2	8.6	27.2
1974	14.4	2.2	2.0	0.2	8.2	27.0
1975	15.9	2.6	2.0	0.2	8.4	29.1
1976	14.7	2.4	1.9	0.2	9.3	28.5
1977	13.4	2.6	2.1	0.2	7.7	26.0
1978	13.4	2.1	2.1	0.2	8.3	26.1
1979	11.5	2.0	1.9	0.3	7.3	23.0
1980	14.3	2.2	1.9	0.4	7.3	26.1
1981	12.4	2.0	2.0	0.4	6.7	23.5
1982	11.7	2.1	2.1	0.4	7.2	23.5
1983	15.0	2.3	2.3	0.5	7.8	27.9
1984	11.9	2.1	2.2	0.5	6.0	22.7
1985	11.6	1.5	2.3	0.6	5.5	21.5
1986	13.4	1.6	2.5	0.6	6.1	24.2
1987	12.8	1.8	2.5	0.5	6.3	23.9
1988	13.9	1.8	2.5	0.6	6.7	25.5
1989	12.2	1.7	2.4	0.7	6.6	23.6
1990	12.4	1.3	2.6	0.7	4.4	21.4
1991	8.5	1.4	2.6	0.8	5.9	19.2
1992	12.9	1.9	2.5	1.0	5.9	24.2

SOURCES: 1993 Fruit and Tree Nuts Situation and Outlook Yearbook, ERS, USDA.

While the data indicate a downward trend in fresh grapefruit and orange consumption, the statistics in Table 1 and Table 2 imply a greater proportion of the Texas citrus crops being consumed as fresh fruit. As the industry continues to "recapture" market share by developing brand recognition for their fresh products, this could prove beneficial to growers, processors and to the Rio Grande Valley.

*Professor and Extension Economist, Associate Professor and Extension Economist, and Research Assistant, respectively. Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas Cooperative Extension, The Texas A&M University System.


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